Weekly export sales on tap for Thursday, shipments to be scrutinized.
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BQCI Afternoon Comments
Midweek reversal, buy dips sell rallies.
Early strength in the soymeal spilled back into soybeans in today’s session. Overnight sell pressures and profit taking had values weaker to start. EU and Russian wheat offers on Tuesday’s GASC tender led to early weakness in wheat markets. March bean oil tested 20 day moving average support and turned higher. GASC books 58MT of soy oil. Talk domestic cash meal buying on the dip fueled the recovery. $435 meal held making the weekly and monthly charts attractive, or at least kept them from a negative bias. Domestic crushers will remain reluctant sellers of meal until more is known about the S/A crop and the availability if U.S. bean supplies. Look for this pattern to continue. Domestic feeders remain tied to the front end and subject to volatile prices. Crushers will attempt to stay current selling meal only when they have bean coverage. No Gamestop hupla here. Word China was back shopping Gulf corn also lent support. CIF values firmed. March corn makes a new high close for the move but does not take out the highs from Sunday nights trade, yet. The biggest export program in the history of mankind is seeing elevations get booked up in the Feb/March slots. Weekly Export sales estimates for Thursday mornings release are over the top at 6.0-7.8 MMT on corn. If realized it would surpass the previous weekly total of 4.7 MMT of corn sold on the 1/10/91 report. That week included the mother of all corn sales, 3.720 MMT to the USSR. Wheat sales are estimated at 250-700k, soybeans 300-750k this year and 350-1,500k next year. Meal at 100-350k and bean oil at 8-30k. With today’s price action, disappointment in tomorrow’s report would be delt with harshly. Some discussion around COFCO purchases and sales today. COFCO has a U.S. domestic presence and may only have to report sales when ownership is sold to the Beijing home office, or the actual boat is loaded, or not. How long are they? Wheat may have gained support from the prolonged cold snap now forecast, double digit below zero temps dipping as far south as Nebraska could impact winter wheat not covered by snowpack. Beans also supported from more China old crop talk, increased demand and tight supplies, that implies the swine are fine and not getting the flu or diarrhea. China crush margins have improved in the past week. Ethanol showed lackluster results but still on pace to hit current demand outlook. Crude stocks decline as distillates continue to show go demand. Gas still struggling with reduced aviation fuel usage and the stay at home work force. Fun fact if corn exports get bumped to 2.750 we need to lift 63.10 million bushels of corn a week every, week through the end of the marketing year. Beans and wheat need to get out of the way.

Weather looks wetter for northeastern Brazil in the 1-5 day, 6-10 has NE Brazil drier, wetter in the south. 11-15 day shows shower activity for Argentina, drier in northern Brazil.

Outside markets have crude higher reaching 1-year highs, the dollar near unchanged and equities mixed, Dow and S&P up marginally, while the Nasdaq drops a couple points.
Calendar: Goldman Roll Begins, US Trade Balance (2/5); WASDE (2/9); Chinese New Year (2/12); China Spring Festival Holiday (2/12-18); President's Day, Markets Closed (2/15); NOPA Crush (2/16); March Option Expiration (2/19)
Calendar Spreads and Cost of Carry
Spread Carry Chg Full  % of FC
CH21/CK21 3    2 1/4 -18 1/2 -16%
SH21/SK21 3 3/4 - 1/4 -22    -17%
MWH21/MWK21 -9 3/4 - 3/4 -16 3/4 58%
WH21/WK21 -2 1/4 -1 1/4 -12 3/4 18%
KWH21/KWK21 -3 1/2 0    -12 3/4 27%
March May corn moves to 3 inverse as threats of cold weather may limit execution of export program. HRS trades 10 carry briefly on an uptick in volume.
Daily Trading Limits: Corn 25-cts (expanded 40-cts); Soybeans 70-cts (expanded $1.05); Minneapolis Wheat 60-cts (expanded NA); KC Wheat 40-cts (expanded 60-cts); Chicago Wheat 40-cts (expanded 60-cts)
Futures Settlements & Technicals
Symbol Close Chg High Low  Support Resist 20-Day 50-Day 
CH21 552    9    552 1/2 536 1/2 523    555 3/4 523    472 1/2
SH21 1371 1/4 16 1/2 1372 1/2 1342 1/2 1298    1395    1373 3/4 1277 1/2
MWH21 625    4    627 1/4 609 1/2 609 1/2 638    625 1/4 591   
WH21 648 1/4 3 1/2 649 3/4 625 3/4 624 1/4 671    654 3/4 625 1/2
KWH21 625 1/2 6 1/2 628 1/4 604 1/2 604 1/2 644    624 1/2 590 3/4
SMH21 435.50 7.50 436.50 425.80 417.6 443.2 440.8 416.0
BOH21 44.48 0.16 44.57 43.33 43.33 45.47 43.40 40.85
Today In 1913: The 16th Amendment, establishing federal income tax, was ratified.

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