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Decision Desk Daily

Methodology

Background

Prior to choosing the precincts to be sampled, the Decision Desk HQ went through 36 years of New Hampshire election returns and identified precincts with a sizable population that had voted with statewide Democrat and Republican primary winners in at least 19 of the 20 combined primaries in that time frame. While these precincts were scattered throughout the state, thanks to population concentration a majority were in Southern New Hampshire.

Execution

After contacting local clerks and precinct moderators, volunteers were positioned at selected bellwether precincts with tablets connected to the e-ballot, as well as a paper version, to conduct the survey.

Voters were approached randomly to participate and each survey took approximately 30 seconds to complete. While overall turnout was high, polling was conducted throughout the day to catch morning, afternoon and evening rushes.

Results were automatically uploaded or relayed to the Decision Desk HQ headquarters in Nashua, NH.

Opportunities for Improvement

  • With additional manpower, an increased number of precincts sampled would be possible.
  • Small adjustments that will allow for an easier e-survey loading process for respondents and volunteers. (Also, hand warmers.)
-- Andrea Ruth, Miles Coleman, Brandon Finnigan and Joel Fagin 

 Topline Results

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Bernie Sanders ------- 62.0%
Hillary Clinton --------- 36.5%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY

Donald Trump -------- 35.8%
Ted Cruz --------------- 15.2%
John Kasich ----------- 14.9%
Marco Rubio ---------- 10.7%
Jeb Bush --------------- 9.6%
Chris Christie ---------- 5.9%
Carly Fiorina ----------- 3.8%
Ben Carson ------------ 2.5%
 

Democratic Primary Crosstabs

Democrats

Sanders 55.9%
Clinton 42.6%
 

Independents

Sanders 70.6%
Clinton 27.9%

Male

Sanders 68.6%
Clinton 29.6%

Female

Sanders 57.3%
Clinton 41.4%

Age: 18-34

Sanders 87.5%
Clinton 12.0%


Age: 35-54

Sanders 60.7%
Clinton 37.4%


Age: 55-74

Sanders 51.5%
Clinton 46.9%

Age: 75+

Sanders 39.5%
Clinton 57.9%

 

Republican Primary Crosstabs

Republicans

Trump 37.5%
Cruz 15.8%
Kasich 16.1%
Rubio 10.5%
Bush 7.5%
Christie 5.6%
Fiorina 3.5%
Carson 1.8%

Independents

Trump 32.4%
Cruz 12.8%
Kasich 22.9%
Rubio 6.7%
Bush 10.9%
Christie 6.4%
Fiorina 4.2%
Carson 2.8%

Male

Trump 37.5%
Cruz 15.8%
Kasich 16.1%
Rubio 10.5%
Bush 7.5%
Christie 5.6%
Fiorina 3.5%
Carson 1.8%

Female

Trump 33.8%
Cruz 14.5%
Kasich 13.6%
Rubio 10.9%
Bush 11.9%
Christie 6.3%
Fiorina 4.0%
Carson 3.3%

Age: 18-34

Trump 32.3%
Cruz 22.8%
Kasich 7.6%
Rubio 12.0%
Bush 10.1%
Christie 7.0%
Fiorina 3.2%
Carson 3.2%


Age: 35-54

Trump 39.0%
Cruz 3.4%
Kasich 27.1%
Rubio 3.4%
Bush 16.9%
Christie 3.4%
Fiorina 5.1%
Carson 0.0%


Age: 55-74

Trump 37.9%
Cruz 11.4%
Kasich 14.7%
Rubio 10.9%
Bush 10.5%
Christie 6.5%
Fiorina 4.2%
Carson 1.6%

Age: 75+

Trump 39.0%
Cruz 3.4%
Kasich 27.1%
Rubio 3.4%
Bush 16.9%
Christie 3.4%
Fiorina 5.1%
Carson 0.0%
Copyright © 2016 Decision Desk HQ, All rights reserved.


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